Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
